“Iran Deal: Winners & Losers in the Greater Middle East” By Juan Cole
FACT: IRAN SANCTIONS END = BOTH UN and European sanctions END on Iran + Likely end of US third party sanctions = THANKS to Iran and 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany = NEGOTIATIONS.
Iran = Is expected to restore its pre-2012 petroleum export levels = US removes ARM TWISTING of Nations like South Korea, Japan and E.U. = ADDS 1 Million more Barrels of OIL to market = COULD DEPRESS OIL PRICES MORE.
FACT: Chinese economy is SLOWING GROWTH as it matures from 10% to 7% or possibly lower + China’s current stock market meltdown = Lower DIRTY ENERGY DEMAND for 2 to 3 years
DEMAND for DIRTY ENERGY may grow if Indians and Indonesians go toward automobile ownership.
FACT: Low oil prices benefit non-oil states with BIG populations = Pakistan is excited working on a gas pipeline from Iran into Pakistan feeding India + Could gain fees for pipeline flow to China.
FACT: Pakistan SUFFERS ELECTRICAL SHORTAGES THAT CRIPPLE ITS FACTORIES and gets 50% of its electricity from natural gas but US financial blockade on Iran caused the Asian Development Bank in Manila to pull financing of the pipeline = BUT Now, the gas pipeline into Pakistan is plausible again.
Egypt benefits also from lower oil costs lowering transportation costsfor its goods + Could see increased Suez Canal traffic and TOLLS.
Dubai benefits as its banks do a lot of business with Iranian firms.
Morocco Benefits (lacks hydrocarbons) will benefit from lower OIL prices.
BIG LOSERS = Gulf oil states see even LOWER OIL PRICES = Saudi Arabia will likely have smaller reserves after squandering them on bombing Yemen.
Press TV: ” Pakistan to complete Iran gas project after nuclear agreement”