“Iran Deal: Winners & Losers in the Greater Middle East” By Juan Cole

“Iran Deal: Winners & Losers in the Greater Middle East” By Juan Cole

Mountains and Tehran

Mountains and Tehran

Click for Source Article by Juan Cole

FACT: IRAN SANCTIONS END = BOTH UN and European sanctions END on Iran + Likely end of US third party sanctions = THANKS to Iran and 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany = NEGOTIATIONS.

Iran = Is expected to restore its pre-2012 petroleum export levels = US removes ARM TWISTING of Nations like South Korea, Japan and E.U. = ADDS 1 Million more Barrels of OIL to market = COULD DEPRESS OIL PRICES MORE.

FACT: Chinese economy is SLOWING GROWTH as it matures from 10% to 7% or possibly lower + China’s current stock market meltdown = Lower DIRTY ENERGY DEMAND for 2 to 3 years

DEMAND for DIRTY ENERGY may grow if Indians and Indonesians go toward automobile ownership.

FACT: Low oil prices benefit non-oil states with BIG populations = Pakistan is excited working on a gas pipeline from Iran into Pakistan feeding India + Could gain fees for pipeline flow to China.

FACT: Pakistan SUFFERS ELECTRICAL SHORTAGES THAT CRIPPLE ITS FACTORIES and gets 50% of its electricity from natural gas but US financial blockade on Iran caused the Asian Development Bank in Manila to pull financing of the pipeline = BUT Now, the gas pipeline into Pakistan is plausible again.

Egypt benefits also from lower oil costs lowering transportation costsfor its goods + Could see increased Suez Canal traffic and TOLLS.

Dubai benefits as its banks do a lot of business with Iranian firms.

Morocco Benefits (lacks hydrocarbons) will benefit from lower OIL prices.

BIG LOSERS = Gulf oil states see even LOWER OIL PRICES = Saudi Arabia will likely have smaller reserves after squandering them on bombing Yemen.

Related video:
Press TV: ” Pakistan to complete Iran gas project after nuclear agreement”

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