GOP = LISTENS TO THEIR OWN NOISE ONLY = LIKE ROVE 2012 GOP LOSES BIG IN 2014

GOP = LISTENS TO THEIR OWN NOISE ONLY = LIKE ROVE 2012 GOP LOSES BIG

Nate Silver’s PECOTA system = 100% ACCURATE FORECASTING OF 2012 VOTE BY STATE

NATE’S book = Elegant, well-researched, and disciplined = Examines the egregious failures of prediction due to blind spots = GOP in 2012

BUT KARL: “Is this just MATH you do as a Republican to make you FEEL BETTER.”

— MEGAN KELLY (R) to ROVE on FOX

CLOWN SHOW 2012

NATE’S book = Main thesis = Predictions are wrong because the NOISE (PERSONAL BIAS + IRRELEVANT OBSERVATIONS + CURRENT CONSENSUS OPINIONS + COMMON WISDOM + OLD TIME RULES + BELIEVING YOUR OWN NOISE) BLOCKS THE REAL SIGNALS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING

GOP CONSENSUS = 2014 will be a GOP election gaining some seats = GOP NOISE!

GOP in 29 states gerrymandered House and state legislative districts

GOP PROBLEMS:

      1. Deep Divisions in GOP Reduce GOP turnout
      2. September Polls when people are paying attention show Obama’s approval ratings UP
      3. Substantial increase in public support of the Affordable Care Act
      4. Economy does not relapse into recession
      5. 2013 Elections: Chris Christie was the only statewide office-holder win for GOP
      6. GOP Congress Past Three Years = Approval ratings AT RECORD LOW single digits
      7. GOP Congress = Least productive in HISTORY = blamed on GOP = party of “No No No”
      8. GOP = Forced government shut-down
      9. GOP = Brinksmanship to no positive end.
      10. GOP = Agenda of cruelty to all BUT BILLIONAIRES = CUTS to food stamps & unemployment + Protecting the most fortunate = NO TO CLOSING LOOPHOLES
      11. GOP = Against JOB stimulus and Infrastructure REBUILDING
      12. GOP = NO to resolving Economic Inequality Gap
      13. GOP = NO to virtually any regulations on MULTINATIONAL FRAUD SCAMS
      14. GOP = NO to working on CLIMATE CHANGE
      15. Demography: Non-white share of the American population is growing
      16. GOP = Doing its best to alienate Latinos + African-Americans + Asians = STOP THEIR VOTING
      17. GOP = Doing its BEST to alienate Women = MORE WOMEN THAN MEN VOTE
      18. GOP = Doing its BEST to alienate Students and the Youth = STOP THEIR VOTING
      19. GOP = Puritanical and unachievable approaches to morality and sex = WOMEN
      20. GOP = MORE governors VULNERABLE TO LOSS = Corbett of PA, LePage of MA, Scott of FL, Snyder in MI and Walker in WI = DRAG on STATES + down ballot contests.
      21. GOP = Must defend extremist advocacy and policies in the states
      22. GOP = Attempt to mandate the teaching of “creationism” in schools (several states).
      23. GOP = 33% or less support Views of the Radical Right = BUT WIN PRIMARIES
      24. GOP = You can’t beat something with nothing = GOP OFFERS NOTHING BUT LIES
      25. GOP = LIES ABOUT TRICKLE DOWN, PRIVATIZATION, WMDs, TORTURE AND USELESS WARS TRANSFERRING WEALTH TO BILLIONAIRES + GOP ECONOMIC  CRASH IN 2007

GOP = OF, BY, and FOR MULTINATIONAL BILLIONAIRES

GOP BILLIONAIRES

Democrats Advantages:

      1. Record to run on = Rescue GOP free-falling economy
      2. Steps toward financial regulation to reduce systemic risk
      3. Saving the domestic auto industry
      4. Several positive environmental initiatives including higher fuel economy standards
      5. Regulation of some of the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change
      6. Ending $6+ TRILLION USELESS and misguided American WAR in Iraq + Afghanistan
      7. Remove BlN LADEN + Qaddafi from Libya
      8. Removing and destroying Syrian chemical weapons
      9. END Bush Administration’s torture policy
      10. Repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”
      11. Expanding national service and wilderness and watershed protection
      12. Improving school nutrition
      13. Reduction by 66% of the national deficit to GDP RATIO
      14. Affordable Care Act removes Preexisting conditions + expands coverage to 30+ millions
      15. By election day 2014 perhaps an enforceable agreement eliminating threat of Iranian nuclear weapons
      16. By election day 2014 perhaps a clear road to a durable agreement between Israel and Palestine + Even an end to the war in Syria.

GOP = Offers nothing but attacks on ACA, scandal-mongering on Benghazi + IRS + Roadblocks to A BETTER ECONOMY with HIGHER EMPLOYMENT and PROSPERTY

GOP COMMON VIEW (NOISE) = Obama’s approval rating + dim view of ACA + Economy doesn’t improve = NATE SILVER WOULD CALL THAT PURE NOISE!

FACT:  Public opinion = usually formed on a compared-to-what basis = GOP BIG ZERO

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/curtis-gans/2014-elections-democrats_b_4832331.html?utm_hp_ref=politics