GOP = LISTENS TO THEIR OWN NOISE ONLY = LIKE ROVE 2012 GOP LOSES BIG
Nate Silver’s PECOTA system = 100% ACCURATE FORECASTING OF 2012 VOTE BY STATE
NATE’S book = Elegant, well-researched, and disciplined = Examines the egregious failures of prediction due to blind spots = GOP in 2012
BUT KARL: “Is this just MATH you do as a Republican to make you FEEL BETTER.”
— MEGAN KELLY (R) to ROVE on FOX
NATE’S book = Main thesis = Predictions are wrong because the NOISE (PERSONAL BIAS + IRRELEVANT OBSERVATIONS + CURRENT CONSENSUS OPINIONS + COMMON WISDOM + OLD TIME RULES + BELIEVING YOUR OWN NOISE) BLOCKS THE REAL SIGNALS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING
GOP CONSENSUS = 2014 will be a GOP election gaining some seats = GOP NOISE!
GOP in 29 states gerrymandered House and state legislative districts
GOP PROBLEMS:
- Deep Divisions in GOP Reduce GOP turnout
- September Polls when people are paying attention show Obama’s approval ratings UP
- Substantial increase in public support of the Affordable Care Act
- Economy does not relapse into recession
- 2013 Elections: Chris Christie was the only statewide office-holder win for GOP
- GOP Congress Past Three Years = Approval ratings AT RECORD LOW single digits
- GOP Congress = Least productive in HISTORY = blamed on GOP = party of “No No No”
- GOP = Forced government shut-down
- GOP = Brinksmanship to no positive end.
- GOP = Agenda of cruelty to all BUT BILLIONAIRES = CUTS to food stamps & unemployment + Protecting the most fortunate = NO TO CLOSING LOOPHOLES
- GOP = Against JOB stimulus and Infrastructure REBUILDING
- GOP = NO to resolving Economic Inequality Gap
- GOP = NO to virtually any regulations on MULTINATIONAL FRAUD SCAMS
- GOP = NO to working on CLIMATE CHANGE
- Demography: Non-white share of the American population is growing
- GOP = Doing its best to alienate Latinos + African-Americans + Asians = STOP THEIR VOTING
- GOP = Doing its BEST to alienate Women = MORE WOMEN THAN MEN VOTE
- GOP = Doing its BEST to alienate Students and the Youth = STOP THEIR VOTING
- GOP = Puritanical and unachievable approaches to morality and sex = WOMEN
- GOP = MORE governors VULNERABLE TO LOSS = Corbett of PA, LePage of MA, Scott of FL, Snyder in MI and Walker in WI = DRAG on STATES + down ballot contests.
- GOP = Must defend extremist advocacy and policies in the states
- GOP = Attempt to mandate the teaching of “creationism” in schools (several states).
- GOP = 33% or less support Views of the Radical Right = BUT WIN PRIMARIES
- GOP = You can’t beat something with nothing = GOP OFFERS NOTHING BUT LIES
- GOP = LIES ABOUT TRICKLE DOWN, PRIVATIZATION, WMDs, TORTURE AND USELESS WARS TRANSFERRING WEALTH TO BILLIONAIRES + GOP ECONOMIC CRASH IN 2007
GOP = OF, BY, and FOR MULTINATIONAL BILLIONAIRES
Democrats Advantages:
- Record to run on = Rescue GOP free-falling economy
- Steps toward financial regulation to reduce systemic risk
- Saving the domestic auto industry
- Several positive environmental initiatives including higher fuel economy standards
- Regulation of some of the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change
- Ending $6+ TRILLION USELESS and misguided American WAR in Iraq + Afghanistan
- Remove BlN LADEN + Qaddafi from Libya
- Removing and destroying Syrian chemical weapons
- END Bush Administration’s torture policy
- Repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”
- Expanding national service and wilderness and watershed protection
- Improving school nutrition
- Reduction by 66% of the national deficit to GDP RATIO
- Affordable Care Act removes Preexisting conditions + expands coverage to 30+ millions
- By election day 2014 perhaps an enforceable agreement eliminating threat of Iranian nuclear weapons
- By election day 2014 perhaps a clear road to a durable agreement between Israel and Palestine + Even an end to the war in Syria.
GOP = Offers nothing but attacks on ACA, scandal-mongering on Benghazi + IRS + Roadblocks to A BETTER ECONOMY with HIGHER EMPLOYMENT and PROSPERTY
GOP COMMON VIEW (NOISE) = Obama’s approval rating + dim view of ACA + Economy doesn’t improve = NATE SILVER WOULD CALL THAT PURE NOISE!
FACT: Public opinion = usually formed on a compared-to-what basis = GOP BIG ZERO
Concise Politics -- Your Time should NOT be wasted. 