CRIMEA AND UKRAINE: WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES

UPDATE:

Eastern Ukraine = Includes city of Donetsk = Large Russian-speaking population that supported Yanukovych = OUSTED Ukrainian president = Ethnic Russians in Ukraine’s east fear the new pro-Western government will suppress them. = Ukraine Officer Killed In Gun Battle In East

Ukraine uses army against armed pro-Russians in an eastern city with one officer killed and five others wounded. = First reported gunbattle in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russia men seized a number of government buildings in recent days.

Ukraine’s New Administration uses words like “Russian aggression” and “Terrorists” for Ukrainian Russians seeking safety and equity. = “the Russian special service and saboteurs” are fomenting unrest = “concrete evidence” of Russia’s involvement

Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused Ukrainian officials of using radical neo-Nazi forces.

A car with four gunmen pulled up on the road in a wooden area outside Slovyansk and opened fire on Ukrainian soldiers who were standing beside their vehicles. = one dead and nine wounded.

Phone call with Russian Lavrov — Kerry “expressed strong concern” that the attacks “were orchestrated and synchronized.”

Lavrov denied Kerry’s claims and blamed the crisis on the failure of the Kiev government “to take into account the legitimate needs and interests of the Russian and Russian-speaking population.” + Russia may pull out of the Ukraine summit if Kiev uses force against “residents of the southeast who were driven to despair.”

In Slovyansk, the mayor said the men demand a referendum on autonomy and possible annexation by Russia. Protesters in other eastern cities have made similar demands.

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UPDATE:

Lawrence Wilkerson = Former chief of staff to US Secretary of State Colin Powell now adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary

Russia suspended from the G8 summit + US & EU have placed numerous sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian troops withdrew from Crimea after Russians took over the remaining military bases in the region.

WILKERSON: What’s really driving this conflict? Putin may be a virtual dictator, but he still has a citizenry to answer to, and that’s increasingly important for him. Putin is salvaging a domestic audience that was slowly but surely turning sour on him. He fixates their minds on an issue that’s very important to at two-thirds of Russians. This kind of thing can get out of hand, so it needs to be handled by cool heads.

Obama has opposition from Luddites, like John McCain and Lindsey Graham –almost look like they’re calling for military action and for further expansion of NATO and so forth, which is pure nonsense. = Got us in trouble in the first place — As much to blame for what’s happened in Ukraine–and before that in Georgia–as anybody else.

We have to do in UKRAINE what Putin did with regard to Kosovo = Seek a solution that’s best for all parties involved = Some of us might not like it–We allow things to settle down a little bit and we look at a future where Ukraine is a buffer state between Russia and NATO. = Moscow and Washington and Berlin neutral support for Kiev to manage itself and bring in freedom and democracy and make Ukraine stable, and eventually well-governed and prosperous. Let’s forget about this business of starting a war and putting divisions on borders and flying airplanes.

US’s role in the way the crisis in Kiev’s unconstitutional transitional government.

WILKERSON: US’s role same in Kiev as in Caracas and in Damascus = Fomenting regime change through the National Endowment for Democracy or IRI or NDI or CIA or all in tandem, which is what I think we’re doing. We have to blame ourselves for a great power sitting on the border of the country we’re trying to change the regime in suddenly objects. = Hungary 1956 CIA covert actions caused Hungarians to rise up. And they rose up, and the Soviet tanks rolled in. Or Prague 1968. = Some things simply don’t change. Their hands should be tied in terms of taking this further and risking a really serious war.

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11587

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Who In Ukraine Will Benefit From An IMF Bailout?

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11614

IMF deal = Cuts to gas subsidies, pensions, public sector employment, as well as privatization of government assets, a deal that really sounds like it’s going to hurt ordinary Ukrainians. = Terribly painful for the people of Ukraine = Blame on Russia = Ukraine leaders will promise a golden age off in the distance = echo remarks coming from the IMF. Best case is Ukraine can become Poland but Poland was heavily invested in by Germany.

Poland was the first country that hinted that they might exit the euro–rather, the Warsaw Pact, they got a much better deal from the IMF and from the West. They got lots of grants, not loans. So an entirely different set of aid than we’ll see in Ukraine, with an entirely different set of conditions.

Who Benefits from this IMF deal?

Money from the IMF and the West was given to the kleptocrats that run Ukraine.

UN + World Bank = Have Ukraine right next to Nigeria for the GINI coefficient of INEQUALITY.

Europeans = Told the 10 to 12 Billionaire Kleptocrats that run the country, we will make you very, very rich if you join us. = Lots of IMF money, you can transfer it into your offshore bank accounts, and the Ukrainian people will owe the IMF. IMF gives the Money to the private bankers, and then you can tax THE people and make them pay.

Ukraine = Irish = Greece = SKEW the PEOPLE

If IMF gives the loan to the Ukraine, Russia announced that Ukraine owes $20 Billion = Dating back to USSR = $5 Billion or $6 Billion for the oil subsidies at normal oil price, not the subsidized price. So all the money that the IMF and the U.S. gives Ukraine is immediately owed to Russia. = Ukrainian People are last in line after the Kleptocrats and Russia. = None of the money’s going to go to the Ukrainian economy = Just like Irish economy or the Greek economy or the other economies that IMF works with.

Russia is saying, a debt is a debt, you owe us the $20 billion for the gas. If you don’t pay us, you don’t get the gas in Europe = Cold Europe as its cost structure goes way up = Possible Benefit to USA fuel exports and MULTINATIONAL OIL.

IMF money NEVER goes to the country or to the people. IMF Money goes to the Billionaires Kleptocrats who put it in EU Offshore Banks immediately back to the West so it’s a circular flow, and it goes in and out of Ukraine in about 20 minutes.

Role of the IMF in the post-Soviet nations of Eastern Europe = IMF loan objective is to deindustrialize the economy and GOV has to pay the IMF loan BACK by privatizing whatever remains in the public domain. = Westerners want to buy the Ukrainian farmland + Factories + Public utilities + Roads + Ports = All sold at very low prices to Westerners.

Money Westerners pay to privatize is turned over to the Ukrainian GOV, who then PAY THE WEST for IMF LOANS. = Whatever the West pays Ukraine goes immediately back to the WEST.

All of Ukraine’s valuable Land and other Resources will by OWNED by THE WESTERNERS = Foreign Ownership = Just like what was done in Russia + Latvia + All of the other post-Soviet countries. = Lower wages for Many Ukrainians who say they haven’t been paid for two months.

1994 Russia = During the Yeltsin selloff, labor went ten or 12 months without being paid. IMF + KLEPTOCRATS must be paid before labor is paid = Hurts the living standards and labor.

IMF RESULT = What happened in Latvia + Greece + Ireland = 30% of the population emigrated. = NO jobs at home.

If one took the position that Latvia has somehow been successful = Even though its people have just suffered years of massive austerity, with huge numbers of people exiting = Almost 20% since 1991

Ukraine’s future is in grain production = But foreign companies want to buy and control that prime grain-producing land.

If Ukraine joins the EU it’s more likely more misery, especially for the working and the middle classes = No subsidies for gas or education or other necessities = Middle-class standard of livings are taken away.

What should be done? We need an entire reassessment of the development model

We need to encourage local production to create and satisfy the people’s demands internally. = NOT being integrated into Europe. = Hoping that somehow there’s going to be a market for Ukraine goods. There’s not been in the past. = Domestic industries really gets suffocated in return they get cheap consumer products.

Annexation of Crimea? Loos for Ukraine? Gain for Russia?

Loss for Ukraine and a gain for Russia = Crimea’s offshore gas fields were Exxons NOW go to Gazprom. = Fairly significant gain for the Russian economy + loss for Ukrainian. The kleptocrats in Ukraine were about to sell the oil and gas rights to American gas companies. = Led Putin in Russia to move against Khodorkovsky for selling Yukos oil to Exxon = America control of Russia’s oil to sell to itself at $0.02 on the gallon and keep everything above it for itself.

Potential loss for Ukraine is Crimea is a tourist destination = some tourist revenue. = Not much immediate harm to the Ukrainian economy.

Effects of these sanctions and what sort of effect they’ll have on the Russian economy? G8 to G7?

G8 = Nothing has happened at the last 3+ G8 summits = Just a get-together for public relations.

Ukrainians’ right-wing party the West supports announced they were going to blow up all the Russian pipelines. Russia announced that if the pipelines and gas lines are blown up, fine–Europe won’t get any gas. And without gas, its industry is going to slow down.

Russia completed the pipeline to the Pacific Ocean to shift its trade towards China and Asia.

The Ukraine cost Russia much more than it returned economically. The reason Russia wanted Crimea wasn’t for economic reasons, but for military and cultural reasons. = Russia couldn’t let NATO put hydrogen bombs 20 miles from Russia = Somebody in the neocons would have said we’ll never have a better chance to blow up Russia than we have right now. Crimea = Russian basic military + Warm water access + National security decision.

Western Europe is so neoliberal = It’s doing to its own populations what was dress rehearsed in Latvia and the Eastern European countries. So Western Europe is drying up. So of course Russia’s going to turn towards an economy that’s not destroying itself = Towards China and other Asian economies = A vast shift.

The neocon plan that Obama has embraced = A coup d’état agenda.

Budapest Memorandum of 1994 = Bans all foreign countries from interfering in the domestic politics of the Ukraine. Russia says the West violated the Budapest memorandum in backing the terrorism and the coup d’état.

Russia survival and success is turning to the east = Selling more oil and gas to the east.

What is America going to be facing with these Sanctions on Russia?

The Soviets/Russia felt that they were given assurances from the US that NATO would not encroach upon the Warsaw Pact or the former Warsaw Pact nations, but NATO took the Warsaw Pact nations + Moved into the former Soviet Republics themselves. Is Ukraine NEXT?

USA has potential for both losses and benefits to MULTINATIONAL OIL.

GOP politicians + some DEMS are advocating for the construction liquify facilities for US’s natural gas reserves to export to Europe diminishing Russia’s oil Power. = Sound like extra business for US, but very high costs for liquifying these reserves and shipping to a global market = no pipeline routes.

What would this mean to American consumers? They would pay much higher prices for gas = Heating bills will go up. + Reduces the competitiveness of American manufacturing = pay more for natural gas reducing newfound profits from local low cost energy. = More fracking = Environmental consequences + Our water tables. = A lot of foolish proposals that will hurt the average American and US economy. We should be using it domestically to keep our gas prices down for the American consumer and for helping to build up our industries.

5% of POPULATION = CRIMEA = TO RUSSIA

95% of Population LEANS WEST!

45.59 MILLION = POPULATION OF UKRAINE 2012

8,334,100 ETHNIC RUSSIANS LIVE IN UKRAINE

1.973 MILLION = POPULATION OF CRINEA (2007) = 4.3% of UKRAINE

CRIMEA Ethnic groups (2001)