UPDATE:  4 IDEAS on CRIMEA

Click for Source Article

Russian invasion of a sovereign neighbor state by a neighbor = Russians are not in any physical danger — But Russia is committed to retaining the Crimea for national security

US has = No effective tools to stop Russian = Strong military response to Russia is out of the question = Strong Russian military and Crimea is too far away and USA military interventions usually turn out Awful.  Minor non-military options = Financial impact + Push Russia out of western organizations and conventions = not likely to stop Russia

Internal divisions in Ukraine = quite real = Large proportion of Ukrainians are predisposed to Russia and wary of Europe = language and contested interpretations of history. Ukraine has weak institutions = legislatures, elections and the rule of law = Weak democracy is a threat to the country’s future. 

US credibility & Security = NOT A STAKE!  GOP LIES AND EXAGGERATES THREATS and always looks for ways to EXPLOIT MIDDLE CLASS FUNDS for another USELESS WAR = Lots of Weapons and FORCE! GOP OVERSTATED partisan attacks = ALL TOO COMMON AND DESTRUCTIVE!

The Color Revolutions by Lincoln A. Mitchell

Color Revolutions in the former Soviet Union = What actually happened and useful insights about the future where the desire for democracy is great but the roots of democracy are weak = central issues in revolutions and regime change = opportunities and pitfalls of democracy promotion in the twenty-first century

Color Revolutions of 2003 through mid-2005 = A series of peaceful street protests toppled corrupt and undemocratic regimes in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan and ushered in the election of 3 new presidents = Did little to spur democratic change and their impact was quite different from what was initially expected by the West’s hope for democratic breakthroughs to reshape the political terrain.  

Color Revolutions = SIGNIFICANT Phases in each nation’s long post-Communist transition but far short of true revolutions.  The role of American democracy promotion and impact of these events on U.S.-Russian relations including Failed “revolutions” in Azerbaijan and Belarus in 2005 and 2006. 

The Arab Spring + Color Revolutions = Reminder of the dangers of confusing dramatic moments with lasting democratic breakthroughs.

┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈▶

Uncertain Democracy: U.S. Foreign Policy and Georgia’s Rose Revolution by Lincoln A. Mitchell

Georgian Rose Revolution = politics + actors + historical context + Role of USA & EU in democratic development. 

US Attempts at constructing democracies in other countries have largely failed unless you see them as first steps on a long path.

November 2003:  A stolen election in Republic of Georgia led to protests and the eventual resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze was Replaced by a democratically elected government led by President Mikheil Saakashvili, who pledged to rebuild Georgia, orient it toward the West, and develop a European-style democracy. 

What made the democratic revolution in Georgia achieve its goal when so many similar movements in the early part of the decade dissolved?

USA and NGO led ROSE REVOLUTION to overthrow Shevardnadze, but Georgia’s failure to live up to its democratic promise.

┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈┈▶

Dueling Narratives: Storytelling and Spin in Georgia by Lincoln A. Mitchell

Georgian Democratic Election:

FACT:  US + EU support of Saakachvili = helped prop up an undemocratic regime filled with corruption and crony capitalism that destroyed an independent judiciary and tried to destroy the opposition.

Saakachvili by late 2012 provoked and lost a war with Russia, let economy deteriorate into widespread unemployment, attacked fledgling democratic institutions, and criminal justice system convicted 99% of those indicted and widespread abuses in the prison system.

Saakachvili = Stripped Leader of the opposition of his citizenship and fined him $Millions + Opposition activists were harassed and arrested = Media was dominated by GOV = Off the democratic rails 

Saakachvili = Tried election fraud + Harassment 

Presence of international monitors + well-funded opposition that hired Western consultants + huge & peaceful pre-election rallies supporting the opposition led to the WIN. 

Opposition WON decisive victory and control of Parliament ANYWAY = Surprising many in West.

Saakachvili = Very undemocratic policies = Electoral trouncing = citizens understood.

BIG SURPRISE to ALL = Saakachvili’s PRIOR Ruling party gracefully conceded defeat to the new Prime Minister Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream (GD) coalition = saved the country from serious civil strife. 

Saakachvili’s = excellent handling of his defeat = he was able to frame the post-election narrative in Georgia = American policymakers who had strongly backed Saakashvili’s government embraced this narrative. 

Since the election the arrest of a high-ranking officials including prime minister Vano Merabishvili, friend of Saakachvili = Return to darker tradition of USSR politics 

FACT:  Western policy toward Georgia = bad policy = regime-collapse = The Georgia Dream party WON a landslide rather when Saakachvili’s enormous advantages and willingness to control the media and law to advance its cause + its public-relations megaphone pumping its achievements

FACT:  Central lesson of regime transition in Color Revolutions & Arab Spring = when authoritarian regimes are in power too long they can collapse in a few weeks.

Saakashvili’s peaceful democratic transition = Hundreds of Thousands of people showed up in pre-election demonstrations against his GOV = MASSIVE BREATH OF SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION DREAM PARTY = Saakachvili had NO CHOICE!

Saakashvili thought about using Georgian television and announce he had won enough of the single-member district seats to ensure that his party would retain control = after a private appeal to Washington (using stolen seats) to see how much support it could count on from the US.= Fortunately, for the people of Georgia US refused the last-ditch appeal. = QUICKLY DISMISSED

Georgian Dream in late in 2012 has hallmarks of a post-authoritarian country = filled with unresolved questions of transitional justice, revelations about the excesses of the old government, and the fragility of the governing coalition that could make it veer toward yet another one-party system = more like GOV that Saakashvili himself inherited after coming to power in 2003 or Obama in 2009.

Georgia Raises questions for other countries = They look like democratic breakthroughs but become more non-democratic regimes with some democratic characteristics.

FACT:  US and Europe REFUSES to see the 2012 election as a potential democratic breakthrough in Georgia = Loyal to the UNPOPULAR OLD regime = This Compromises the ability of the WEST to influence the future course of democracy.

LESSON = West must more CLEAR AND TOUGH-minded about what is actually happening in places where it makes a grand investment, and not merely focus on what it wishes were happening.

TREATY FACT: UKRAINE HAS HAD LONG TERM TREATY TO KEEP 26,500 RUSSIAN TROOPS IN CRIMEA!

ALL LEGAL AND APPROVED IN A SIGNED TREATY!

THE TROOPS HAVE BEEN THERE A LONG TIME BEFORE GOV WAS TOPPLED!

26,500 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN WORKING IN CRIMEA BY TREATY AND AGREED TO BY UKRAINE!

44.6 MILLION = POPULATION OF UKRAINE
8,334,100 ETHNIC RUSSIANS LIVE IN UKRAINE

Ethnic groups (2001) IN UKRAINE
77.8% Ukrainians
17.3% Russians
4.9% others

Russia always does what it thinks will make it more powerful. No exceptions.

“Russia without Ukraine is a country; Russia with Ukraine is an empire.”

 — Daniel Drezner in Foreign Policy

Russia Cares about CRIMEA = WHY?

1. Crimea’s mostly Pro-Russian population is not hostile to Russia 
2. Crimea = Russia’s only port ice-free waters year-round + access to Syrian Base
3. Putin = Sees his Black Sea port as Russia’s Relevance Globally
4. Gateway to Western Europe = Northern edge of the Black Sea
5. Russia military & economic access to Mediterranean Sea = Russia naval port
6. Hostile, eastern neighbor, would make Russia’s standing in the Black Sea trickier
7. Crimea autonomous region = Own parliament-prime minister = Under Ukraine law
8. Wealth of mineral deposits

Western and northern regions are native Ukrainian speakers = EU Integration

Eastern and southern regions are more mixed with ethnic Russians = Towards Russia